Dec 5 2011
The NBA is (finally) back in business. Guest writer Ben Chayon breaks down the Eastern Conference... and predicts LeBron will have to wait at least one more year before getting a ring. Here's our team-by-team preview:
Coming off a 44-38 season that saw the Hawks knock off the Magic 4-2 in the first round there are big expectations in Atlanta. The Hawks have an important decision to make in regards to unrestricted free agent Jamal Crawford. If Joe Johnson could improve his efficiency and Atlanta adds a quality piece or two they could have a very successful season. However, I expect them to end up in the 5th or 6th seed as usual and make some noise in the first round without advancing very far. Atlanta never seems to be able to get over the hump. Another concern: Josh Smith is reportedly pushing for a trade.
Strengths: Free Throw %, Minimal Turnovers, Aggressiveness
Weaknesses: Inconsistency, Interior Defense, Three-point shooting
Prediction: 3rd in Southeast, 1st round of playoffs
I can't think of a team that will benefit more from the shortened 66-game season than the veteran Boston Celtics. Expect the Celtics to come out of the gate quick and have an edge over many of the leagues more inexperienced teams. This is the Celtics last legitimate shot at a title with their current big four. Therefore I expect them to leave it all out on the court this year. A conference final appearance wouldn't surprise me in the least. But the C's do have a gaping hole in the middle of their lineup, thanks to the trade of Kendrick Perkins and retirement of Shaquille O'Neal; does anyone really think Jermaine O'Neal will stay healthy enough to be the solution there?
Strengths: Leadership, Defense, Team Chemistry, FG %, Depth
Weaknesses: Age, Speed, Regular Season Motivation
Prediction: 1st in Atlantic Division, 2nd round of playoffs
I see the Charlotte Bobcats as having a very rough season. With their top three salaried players being Corey Maggette, Boris Diaw and Tyrus Thomas you know they have problems; they simply don't have the talent to compete with the higher-level NBA teams. It would be wise not to forget that Bobcats owner Michael Jordan was the face of the hard-line owners attempt to squeeze everything from the players they could during the CBA negotiations. I wouldn't be surprised if many of the Bobcats players come into training camp bitter about this fact, and it certainly won't help sell the team to free agents. With the loss of team centerpieces Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace scoring - already a problem - will become even more of an issue. The one bright spot is rookie point guard Kemba Walker, but it remains to be seen if Walker and incumbent D.J. Augustin will be able to play together, or if their lack of size will become too much of a liability on the defensive end.
Strengths: Youth, Athleticism
Weaknesses: Leadership, Scoring, Three-point shooting, Lack of Quality Big Men
Prediction: 5th in Southeast Division, No playoffs
The Chicago Bulls will have one of the best rosters going into the 2011-2012 campaign. Derrick Rose will be looking to defend his MVP award and lead the Bulls to the Eastern Conference finals and beyond. He was a one man wrecking crew last year, but simply couldn't beat Miami in a best of seven series alone. With Carlos Boozer's toe injury totally healed, Chicago should have a nice low-post complement to Rose. Combine that with Noah's excellent enthusiasm and rebounding skills and you might just have a championship recipe. The Bulls could be even scarier if they add a scoring threat at the shooting guard spot as expected.
Strengths: Defense, Rebounding, Coaching
Weaknesses: Free Throw Shooting, Depth, Minimal Backcourt Help For Derrick Rose
Prediction: 1st Central Division, NBA Champions
Lebron left the Cavs in tatters when he departed for South Beach but Cleveland, it is time to move on. There is plenty of reason for optimism at the Quicken Loans Arena. You have two of the top four picks in the 2011 NBA draft coming to town (Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson). These young and explosive players combined with Cleveland's cap space going forward (Amnesty clause on Baron Davis and Jamison's expiring $15M contract) give Cavs fans the hope they so desperately need. It will certainly be a rebuilding year in Cleveland but GM Chris Grant has made the best of a bad situation.
Strengths: Youth, Speed
Weaknesses: Experience, Leadership/Direction
Prediction: 4th Central Division, No playoffs
Detroit has a lot of problems going forward. They have locked themselves into two horrible contracts (Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva) through the 2013-2014 season. In addition, they are committed to Rip Hamilton for $12M a season for the next two years. All three players hold very little value on the trade market due to their underachieving performances last season combined with their bloated contracts. I envision a very rough season for the Pistons and their ability to rebuild is hampered by their financial commitments to players of the past such as Rip Hamilton and Ben Wallace. Lastly, the loss of Tayshaun Prince (assuming he isn't resigned) significantly hurts their wing play. Is Austin Daye ready to fill that spot on a full-time basis? Getting Jonas Jerebko - who missed last season due to injury - back will help.
Strengths: Youth, Prospects
Weaknesses: Defense, Rebounding, Leadership, Bloated Contracts For Underachieving Players
Prediction: 5th Central Division, No playoffs
The Pacers have several good young pieces (Tyler Hansbrough, Roy Hibbert, George Hill, Darren Collison) but who is going to lead this team? Danny Granger has been there for several seasons and many Pacer fans are convinced he isn't the superstar to take them to the promised land. He is under contract until the 2013-2014 season so unless they will entertain trading Granger they better learn to build around him. I love the Pacers youth and athleticism and feel they have a great shot to make the playoffs this season. It will be interesting to see if the shortened training camp will cause them to get off to a slow start because of their young roster.
Strengths: Young Core, Scoring, Rebounding, Free Throw %
Weaknesses: Turnovers, Team Play/Assists
Prediction: 2nd Central Division, 1st Round Of Playoffs
The most hated team outside of South Beach is at it again. While many commentators have stressed that a shortened training camp helps Miami I disagree. They only played together one season and still have a lot to figure out. There are many teams in the NBA with more experience playing with one another compared to Miami. It will be interesting to see if the Heat use the amnesty clause on Mike Miller to try and free up cap space to make a more useful signing - like a quality center. Either way I predict the Heat will be right there in the conference finals but fall short once again. A popular notion is that the Heat will be crowned NBA champions but people will always say this without really analyzing the actual probability. Chicago has a better and more well-rounded roster and a higher-caliber coach. Despite this Miami will still be a team that causes countless matchup problems.
Strengths: Speed, Athleticism, Scoring,
Weaknesses: Lack Of A True Center, Interior Defense, Effective Team Defense, Post Up Scoring
Prediction: 1st Southeast Division, Eastern Conference Finals
Look for a big season from new acquisition Stephen Jackson. As always the Bucks fate rides on Andrew Bogut's health (which is usually a bad bet to make). Their lack of scoring always comes back to haunt them in late game situations. Anytime you have a team coached by Scott Skiles you have a good shot at success. He always gets everything out of all of his teams. I have no reason to think this season will be any different. It will be an uphill battle to try and sneak into the 8th seed. Strength: Blue Collar Attitude, Coaching, Lack Of Turnovers, Lack of Assists
Weaknesses: Glut at PG position, Scoring, FG %
Prediction: 3rd Central Division, No playoffs
The Nets are playing the 2011-2012 season in limbo (Newark, NJ) before their much-anticipated move to Brooklyn, NY. With all of the talk about their desire to acquire Dwight Howard it is easy to forget they have a season to play. Players such as Travis Outlaw are the reason why the amnesty clause was put in place in the new CBA. He is owed $7M per year through the 2014-2015 season (who signed that contract?). Taking this off their books will improve their salary cap situation tremendously going forward. It will also be Deron Williams' first full season with the Nets. He is going to have to see the team going in the right direction or there is a chance he jumps ship at the end of the season (doomsday for the Nets front office). Brook Lopez must find a way to improve his rebounding for the Nets to stand a chance of making the playoffs, especially with Kris Humphries' status uncertain. If Williams doesn't re-sign - and he's already indicated that he won't accept a contract extension - look for this franchise to implode. The next 12 months could possibly shape the Nets franchise for the next five years.
Strengths: Top Tier PG, Cap Flexibility, Rebounding
Weaknesses: Uncertainty About Team Future, Stealing, 3pt FG %, Depth
Prediction: 4th Atlantic Division, No playoffs
The Knicks are looking forward to playing their first full season with both Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony. With all of the Chris Paul and Dwight Howard talk the Knicks must focus on the task in front of them and that is advancing in the 2012 playoffs. We all know the Knicks can flat out score the basketball but they must defend in order to move up in the eastern conference. Look for Georgia Tech product Iman Shumpert to help out significantly with the perimeter defense. Aging PG Chauncey Billups should have enough left in the tank to lead the Knicks through a 66 game season. Between Amare's back issues and Billups age I think the shortened season plays into the Knicks hands. It will be interesting to see how Landry Fields bounces back after a truly awful playoff series against the Celtics. Coach D'Antoni is in the last year of his contract and that should be all the motivation he needs to get the most out of his roster. The addition of Mike Woodson to the coaching staff should help improve the Knicks defensive woes.
Strengths: Scoring, Speed, Blocking, Free Throw %
Weaknesses: Defense, Rebounding
Prediction: 2nd Atlantic Division, 2nd Round Of Playoffs
Orlando has one thing on their mind this year: figure out how to keep Dwight Howard! Coming off of an awful first round playoff exit at the hands of the Hawks the Magic are in need of having a great season. This will be Orlando's last chance to convince Dwight to stay so they better make it count. Look for Orlando to use the amnesty clause on Gilbert Arenas and as a result free up $60M that would of counted against their salary cap over the next three seasons. They have a great core of Dwight Howard, Hidayet Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson but it might not be enough. I don't think Orlando will get over the hump this year and predict Howard heads for better days in Los Angeles. With the second highest payroll only behind the Los Angeles Lakers the Orlando Magic better hope they can figure out fast. To an outside observer it seems as though Howard's patience has already run very thin.
Strengths: Rebounding, Dwight Howard, Blocks
Weaknesses: Cap Flexibility, Turnovers, Assists, Free Throw %, Complete Reliability On Dwight Howard
Prediction: 2nd Southeast Division, 1st Round of Playoffs
Philadelphia is one of those blue-collar teams that people enjoy watching. They play exciting fast break basketball and are a joy to watch on most nights. However, their level of play is extremely inconsistent. They caught fire towards the end of last season, which led to a 7th seed and an impressive 26-15 home record. I think the 76ers will be in their usual position, which is fighting for one of the last seeds in the playoffs. Until they get a legitimate star (Andre Iguodala is not the answer) they will never be able to move into the top tier of the eastern conference. That combined with their utter lack of a quality center makes climbing up the standings nearly impossible.
Strengths: Lack Of Turnovers, Competitive Spirit, Balanced Offense
Weaknesses: Center Position, Consistent 20PPG Scorer, Lack Of Outside Scoring
Prediction: 3rd Atlantic, 1st Round Playoffs
The Toronto Raptors will have many of the same problems that haunted them last season such as inability to play quality team defense, horrible 3 point shooting, inexperience and a lack of leadership. Their leading rebounder (Reggie Evans) is an unrestricted free agent and it would be wise for the Raptors to retain him. Evans helps balance Toronto's reputation as a soft team. He is the definition of gritty. The Raptors list of potential problems is long but if they can take advantage of their athleticism and speed it should help downplay some of their more minor flaws.
Strengths: Youth, Athleticism
Weaknesses: Defense, 3 Point Shooting, Turnovers, Inexperience
Prediction: 5th Atlantic, No Playoffs
Many are already naming the amnesty clause the Rashard Lewis clause. At $22M a year for a player who averaged 11 PPG last season there is good reason for this, . The Wizards have a great young core, which includes John Wall, Nick Young, Andray Blatche and Javale Mcgee. Add to the mix the 2011 draft pick Jan Vesely and you have an abundance of young talent. With youth comes inexperience and this will be the Wizards biggest issue. In addition, the Wizards were the worst road team in the NBA last season with an atrocious 3-38 road record. With performances like this on the road Washington won't be able to smell the playoffs for many seasons to come.
Strengths: John Wall, Youth, Athleticism, Blocks, Steals
Weaknesses: Scoring, 3 Point Shooting, FG %
Prediction: 5th Southeast, No Playoffs
Projected Order of Finish
| Atlantic | Central | Southeast |
| Boston Celtics | Chicago Bulls | Miami Heat |
| New York Knicks | Indiana Pacers | Orlando Magic |
| Philadelphia 76ers | Milwaukee Bucks | Atlanta Hawks |
| New Jersey Nets | Cleveland Cavaliers | Washington Wizards |
| Toronto Raptors | Detroit Pistons | Charlotte Bobcats |
