Here's a trend that's unlikely to surprise even the most casual observer of the NCAA Tournament:
The higher-seeded teams do better.
Here's a deeper look at that shocking trend, as well as some others that may assist as you fill out your NCAA brackets:
One Seeds in the Final Four
Here's another unsurprising factoid. Since 1985 -- the year the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams, number one seeds have:
- Won 15 of 24 titles (over 62%)
- Been runner-up 10 times (41%)
That said, having all four number ones reach the Final Four is very rare. It's happened just once -- in 2008, when UCLA, North Carolina, Memphis and eventual champion Kansas all held serve through the regionals.
Before the 2008 tournament, the closest we'd come is three of four, which happened just twice: in 1997, when top seeds Kentucky, North Carolina and Minnesota reached the final weekend but fourth-seeded Arizona won the title, and in in 1993, when North Carolina (1) won the final game over Michigan (1), with Kansas (1) and Kentucky (2) making up the rest of the Final Four.
The average Final Four features 1.8 number one seeds.
Average Composition of the Final Four
The 2008 Final Four -- with four number ones winning out -- was the chalkiest group ever, obviously. Second was the 1993 with three top seeds and a number two -- an average seed among Final Four participants of 1.25.
The 2007 group, which featured one seeds Florida and Ohio State and two seeds UCLA and Georgetown was the third-chalkiest group to make the Final Four.
On the flip side, the most surprising Final Four may have been the 2000 group, when fifth-seeded Florida and eight seeds Wisconsin and North Carolina joined eventual champions Michigan State (1). The average seed of that group: 5.5.
That was one of only two years in which the average seed of the Final Four was five or higher. The others was 2006, when 11th-seeded George Mason crashed the party with Florida (3), UCLA (2) and LSU (4).
Which Seeds Reach the Final Four Most Often?
The better the seed, the more often it reaches the Final Four. Here's a quick rundown of seeds and the number of times each one has reached the Final Four:
- #1 - 43 appearances (44.7%)
- #2 - 20 appearances (20.8%)
- #3 - 12 appearances (12.5%)
- #4 - 9 appearances (9.4%)
- #5 - 4 appearances (4.1%)
- #6 - 3 appearances (3.1%)
- #7 - 0 appearances (0%)
- #8 - 3 appearances (3.1%)
- #9 - 0 appearances (0%)
- #10 - 0 appearances (0%)
- #11 - 2 appearances (2.1%)
No team seeded higher than 11th has ever reached the Final Four. George Mason in 2006 and LSU in 1986 are the only teams to advance that far as eleven seeds.
Interestingly, that makes the eleven spot more successful than the ten, nine or seven seeds.
Which Seeds Win the Championship?
Again, top seeds win most often:
- #1 - 15 championships (62.5%)
- #2 - 3 championships (12.5%)
- #3 - 3 championships (12.5%)
- #4 - 1 championships (4.2%)
- #5 - 0 championships (0%)
- #6 - 1 championships (4.2%)
- #7 - 0 championships (0%)
- #8 - 1 championships (4.2%)
The lowest-seeded team to ever win an NCAA Championship game: the legendary 1985 Villanova Wildcats, who beat heavily-favored Georgetown as an eighth seed.
The six seed won in 1988 -- Larry Brown and Danny Manning's Kansas Jayhawks beat number one seed Oklahoma for the championship.
Those three Cinderellas and the '97 Arizona Wildcats, who won the title as a four, are the only teams to win championships without a top-three position in the brackets.
