Imagine a bridge that reaches 90 percent of the way across a deep chasm. You can walk most of the way across - so close, you can almost feel the earth on the other side. But you just can't get there. Ninety percent of a bridge is about as helpful as no bridge at all.
The same could be said for the NBA and NBPA's lockout negotiations. The sides are closer to an agreement than they've been at any point - but their difference of opinion is still wide enough that the league is set to cancel the remainder of the preseason. And the first two-week portion of the regular season is next on the chopping block.
The sides have reportedly made substantial progress on many issues. The union appears willing to accept a new payroll structure that replaces the current soft salary cap with an escalating luxury tax intended to curb payroll growth, and has been offered an "out" in any new CBA after seven years - which would give the players the opportunity to renegotiate at a time when the league should be enjoying the benefits of a new and potentially-lucrative television deal.
The stumbling block is money - specifically, the portion of basketball related income (BRI) that the players will receive in the new deal. Under the terms of the CBA that expired in June, the players received 57 percent of BRI. The owners' initial proposal sought to reduce that share to something in the neighborhood of 45 percent. As things stand, the owners are offering 47 percent, and the players are demanding 53.
The owners have characterized their offer as a 50-50 split of revenue, but that proposal includes a major re-working of the BRI formula to include expenses. Under the last deal, BRI included a wide range of revenue streams but did not deduct any expenses. The fact that players enjoy the benefits of increasing revenue without sharing in the risk - increased marketing expenses needed to fill seats and generate that revenue, for example - has long been a contentious issue in these negotiations.
With talks breaking down, powerful player agents are expected to renew their push to decertify the NBPA and take the league to court. But they do not seem to have enough support from union the rank-and-file to go that route. Not yet, anyway. Decertification would give the players more options in a court fight with the league; some believe that would mean additional leverage in the ongoing negotiations. But lawsuits could take months - even years - to resolve. NBPA leadership has said they'll consider that option, but Billy Hunter and Derek Fisher remain committed to reaching a new deal at the bargaining table.
League commissioner David Stern has announced that the league will cancel the first two weeks of the regular season if a deal is not reached by Monday, October 10.
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