Wednesday, May 16, 2012

NBA Playoffs: First Round

Playoff basketball brings a whole new level of intensity, but this season, the postseason might offer players a much-needed break. After a lockout-compressed 66-game regular season that had teams playing three games in three nights or four in five at times, the television-friendly playoff schedule will allow teams to actually rest a bit between games.

Teams to Beat

The Chicago Bulls finished with the NBA's best overall record and are the top seed in the playoffs. That's particularly impressive given the fact that Derrick Rose was in and out of the lineup due to a variety of injuries. But top seed status doesn't necessarily make Chicago the favorite to come out of the East... there's a team from Miami with a remarkably talented (but somewhat top-heavy) roster that will have something to say about all that... and don't discount the Boston Celtics' chances at making one more run to the Finals.

In the West, the Spurs are the top seed once again... just like last year, when they were upset in the first round by the Memphis Grizzlies. But the second-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder might be the team to beat, while the Los Angeles Lakers - like the Celtics - try to make one more run.

Most Intriguing Matchups

The first-round series between the Knicks and Heat will generate a lot of buzz due to the combined star power of LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire. And the Knicks have been one of the league's hottest teams since Mike Woodson took over for Mike D'Antoni. But their lack of a true point guard - Jeremy Lin's injury will keep him out for another two weeks or so, and Baron Davis is a shell of his former self - will probably doom New York to another first-round exit.

The most evenly-matched series might be the four/five pairing in the West: Clippers vs. Grizzlies. The Grizzlies squeaked past the Clips in the season's final week to take over the four seed and home-court advantage; that could be big, as Memphis is excellent at home.

Series-by-Series Breakdowns

1. Chicago Bulls vs. 8. Philadelphia 76ers

Tom Thibodeau and Derrick Rose, Chicago BullsGetty Images / Jonathan Daniel

The Bulls are an outstanding regular season team, partly because they play with playoff-style intensity every night. That allowed them to overcome the absence of Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah for much of last season and the injuries to Derrick Rose, Rip Hamilton and Luol Deng this year. The only question: will that laser-like intensity continue to be an advantage when everyone is in playoff mode? Can the Bulls take their play to another level? The Sixers probably don't have the talent to force that... but a conference semifinal or final opponent might.

2. Miami Heat vs. 7. New York Knicks

LeBron James, Miami HeatGetty Images Sport - Mike Ehrmann/Staff

This series has it all. Star power. History. Unfortunately, what it doesn't have is a point guard wearing a Knick uniform. If the Knicks were completely healthy, their depth and Tyson Chandler's presence in the middle might have been enough to send Miami home early.

3. Indiana Pacers vs. 6. Orlando Magic

Danny Granger, Indiana PacersGetty Images / Andy Lyons

Indiana is the best team that no one's talking about... but if Dwight Howard was healthy, they'd probably be the underdog in this series. Of course, Dwight Howard is far from healthy - back surgery ended his season weeks ago - and without the big man, Orlando just doesn't have the talent to compete in the postseason.

4. Boston Celtics vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks

Kevin Garnett, Boston CelticsJonathan Daniel / Getty Images

The Celtics have the higher seed, by virtue of their Atlantic Division title. But the Hawks finished the regular season with a superior record, and they'll have home court advantage in the series. That's a big deal - the Hawks are very tough at Philips Arena. Unfortunately, all-star center Al Horford apparently won't be able to return for this series.

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. 8. Utah Jazz

Tim Duncan, San Antonio SpursEzra Shaw / Getty Images

The Spurs are the top seed in the West... just like last year. But last year, they lost in the first round to the Memphis Grizzlies, becoming just the second top seed to lose to an eight since the first round was expanded to seven games. It can't happen two years in a row... can it?

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 7. Dallas Mavericks

Kevin Durant over Kobe BryantStephen Dunn/Getty Images

A team on the way up against a team on the way down. The defending champs are in transition, as Mark Cuban tries to clear cap space for a run at Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. But that won't help the Mavs deal with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and a very talented Oklahoma City team that could make their first of several trips to the Finals.

3. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Denver Nuggets

Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles LakersGetty Images Sport / Ronald Martinez

The Lakers missed out on Chris Paul. They lost Lamar Odom and Phil Jackson and alienated Pau Gasol. And yet, here they are... with another Pacific Division title under their belts, ready to make one more run at the Finals. Kobe Bryant may be the oldest superstar in the game today... but he was second in the league in scoring. The Denver Nuggets are one of the most entertaining teams in the league, but it's hard to see how a frontcourt featuring JaVale McGee and Al Harrington will be able to deal with the Lakers' size.

4. Memphis Grizzlies vs. 5. Los Angeles Clippers

Rudy GayStephen Dunn/Getty Images

Chris Paul makes the Clippers a very dangerous team... but the Grizzlies have an outstanding frontcourt, home court advantage, and the opportunity to build on last year's impressive showing.


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