Billy Hunter, executive director of the NBPA, made headlines this week by telling a group of lawyers that he doesn't expect the NBA lockout to be settled in time to save the 2011-12 season.
This, of course, was the point.
I admit - I'm not feeling particularly warm and fuzzy about the league's short-term future. I think the NBA's "preemptive strike" lawsuit - designed to keep the union from decertifying - could extend the process quite a bit; the Federal court system isn't quite as quick as Derrick Rose's first step. I know the owners and players are hundreds of millions apart in revenue-split discussions, and have a fundamental disagreement on hard vs. soft salary caps.
The outlook is pretty bleak.
On the other hand, the NBA and NBPA have had exactly one bargaining session since the lockout began; they haven't really begun to discuss these issues in earnest. And until there's a real danger of losing games because of the labor battle - which won't be the case until mid-September or so - neither side will feel much urgency to get anything done. Once they do, the pace of negotiations can pick up considerably.
I don't believe the 2011-12 season will be cancelled, mostly because I don't believe the players or owners will act against their own self-interest. And cancelling a season is in no one's best interest.
Consider recent sports history. The NHL didn't play in 2004-05. Some have suggested that season-killing lockout was worth the trouble, because that league's salary structure is now tilted back in favor of the owners. But what did it do to professional hockey's place in the American sports landscape? Does anyone really think the NHL is the fourth "major" pro sport at this point? Can you tell me where to find the Versus network on your cable system?
Baseball was able to survive the October without a World Series thanks in part to the epic (and chemically-enhanced) Mark McGwire/Sammy Sosa home run chase, Cal Ripken's games-played streak, and the Yankees. That was a unique set of circumstances; can't count on that sort of thing.
If the 2011-12 season is wiped away, the biggest impact on the bargaining will be a much smaller revenue "pie" to divide between owners and players when play does resume.
Of course, Billy Hunter knows that. So does David Stern. Which is why I strongly believe Hunter's comment was just an attempt to get some headlines, score some points in the PR battle.
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