The NBA lockout has taken on a "war of attrition" cast of late, with both sides apparently digging in for a long, protracted standoff. But there may be cracks in the owners' united front.
John Canzano of the Oregonian is reporting that there's a group of owners that are determined to extend the lockout into early 2012 and beyond as a means of breaking the union and making major changes to the league's economic structure. No surprise there. But he also said there's a second group that seems eager to settle.
That second part is a bit of a revelation. But perhaps it shouldn't be.
Contenders vs. Non-Contenders
I've long suspected that there are owners who would rather not lose the 2011-12 season to a labor dispute. The Lakers' Jerry Buss, for example; his team is making a healthy profit, and he's got a limited window of opportunity to win titles with the Kobe Bryant/Pau Gasol core. Or the Knicks' James Dolan, who has a team worthy of appearing on the back pages of New York's tabloids for the first time in a decade - and a massive renovation of Madison Square Garden to pay for. Or Mark Cuban, who would love to cash in on the NBA championship his Mavs won in June. Or Mickey Arison, whose team needs to get back on the floor to erase everyone's memories of the Finals.
Established Owners vs. the New Guys
An extended lockout may not be a big priority for some of the league's longer-tenured owners, either. Buss, for example, bought the Lakers (along with their home arena, the NHL's Los Angeles Kings, and a large piece of property) for $67.5 million in 1979. Last season, Forbes estimated the team's value at $643 million. Even the small-market Milwaukee Bucks - ranked 30th in terms of franchise value at $258 million - have been a nice investment for owner Herb Kohl, who purchased the team in 1985 for $19 million.
NHL Owners vs. Everyone Else
So who are the hard-liners? Some suggest that the league's newest owners, after paying record sums for their teams, are most eager for an extreme makeover of the league's economic system. That might include the Warriors' new ownership group, which paid $450 million for the team in 2010, and Cleveland's Dan Gilbert, whose team lost an estimated 26 percent of its value when LeBron took his talents to South Beach.
There has also been conjecture that the owners with investments in both NBA and NHL teams represent an important voting bloc, and one that believes, based on their experience with the NHL's season-killing 1995 lockout, that cancelling an entire season can be worth the sacrifice. But it's hard to imagine that group wielding that much influence because it seems to be getting smaller by the day.
Earlier this year, there were six NBA owners with "sister franchises" in the NHL: Ted Leonsis (Wizards, Capitals), Dolan (Knicks, Rangers), Stan and Josh Kroenke (Nuggets, Avalanche), Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment (Raptors, Maple Leafs), Ed Snider (Sixers, Flyers) and Atlanta Spirit LLC (Hawks, Thrashers). But the Sixers, Hawks and Thrashers have all been sold, and the Raptors are reportedly on the market as well. It's not hard to imagine Leonsis - who has been stuck for the last half-decade with the god-awful contracts of Gilbert Arenas and, now, Rashard Lewis - wanting to crush the union, but I'm not convinced that the others have a ton of influence over the proceedings.
And as I've suggested before, any owner that tries to sell his colleagues on the idea that cancelling the NHL season was a net positive has his work cut out for him. My response would simply be, "where can I find the Versus network on basic cable, exactly?"
Big Markets vs. Small
Another potential split: the "haves" and the "have nots." The numbers vary depending on who is doing the talking, but the general consensus seems to be that between 10-12 teams made a profit of approximately $150 million last season, while the rest collectively lost as much as $450 million. Not hard to imagine the lower-revenue clubs having a healthy amount of resentment towards the Knicks/Bulls/Lakers/Celtics/Heat. And that's before you consider the fact that most of the major player moves last summer were from small markets (Cleveland, Toronto, Phoenix, Utah) to big (Miami, New York, Chicago).
I don't think the owners will allow revenue sharing to become part of the labor negotiations, simply because I don't think they'll be willing to have what could be a long and ugly fight in public. Which is a shame, because I'd love to see what Buss and Dolan have to say to the idea that their television money should be used to prop up the Maloof brothers.
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