To this point, the flow of NBA players to foreign leagues has been a leaky-faucet trickle. But it may become a "holy crud call the plumber immediately" situation very soon.
Agent Happy Walters suggested as much via his Twitter feed on Saturday, saying:
I can confidently say that more NBA or RFA and UFA are going 2 start signing soon in Foreign Leagues. U may even hear of some surprises this weekend. Some big names are close to giving it a shot while the silliness of the lockout continues. Stay tuned....
Walters' biggest client is Knicks forward Amar'e Stoudemire, but I don't think he's the "big name." It would be next to impossible to secure private insurance for Stoudemire's contract due to STAT's injury history; that same issue kept Stoudemire off Team USA during last summer's FIBA World Championships in Turkey.
If not Stoudemire, who? Hard to say - just about every big name in the league has flirted with the idea of waiting out the lockout while playing overseas.
Where will this flood of players sign? It's worth noting that Walters said "foreign" and not "European." In many ways, China is the most attractive potential destination for NBA stars. The Chinese economy is much stronger than that of Greece, Italy or Spain, and building up popularity in China can be very lucrative for American ballers.
But the Chinese league doesn't seem particularly hospitable to locked-out NBA players at this point. According to reports, the Chinese pro league is considering a new rule that would strictly forbid any opt-out clauses in contracts. Per FIBA rules, any NBA player wanting to sign overseas during the lockout must be able to return to the states when the Association re-opens for business. Some Chinese clubs have apparently hinted that they'd skirt the new rule with wink-and-nod agreements to release their NBA players when the lockout ends, but it's hard to imagine how such a deal would pass muster with basketball's international governing body.
Implications of "The Flood"
Let's assume Walters is right and we do see NBA players signing overseas in larger numbers. I don't think that will have a major impact on the labor negotiations as a whole, for one simple reason. There aren't enough high-paying jobs in Europe or China to give even a majority of NBA players a realistic "plan B." Most foreign leagues have strict limits on the number of international players each team can sign, and the best teams tend to reserve those spots for players they're sure will be around for a full season.
That said, I'll take a large block of signings as an indication that the labor negotiations are going as badly as they appear, especially if European powers like Real Madrid get involved. The top European clubs - the ones that expect to be competing for titles - want players that will be available at the end of the season. If they start signing NBA stars, that likely means they expect the entire 2011-12 season will be cancelled.
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